Images courtesy of online stock photos
Our lively breakfast discussions this weekend formed the basis of today's blog, focusing on the anticipated completion dates of the UK's railway lines in the fourth quarter of 2024.
As high-speed rail projects surge ahead globally, the economic benefits of timely completion become increasingly significant. The UK's progresses with the local High Speed railway 2 facing delays and escalating costs, we read about global projects such as China's rapid infrastructure execution yields significant net gains, with the UK's slower pace incurring substantial opportunity costs. This prompts a critical question: what strategies can the UK adopt to expedite its railway development and harness these potential economic advantages?
Rail travel to and from London is experiencing the same number of commuters as pre-COVID levels*1 but with fewer carriages, forcing many passengers to stand for hours. This experience of travel prompted a need to delve into the timelines of the UK railway plan. We read about the planning and conceptualization of current railway programs and how these ideas evolved into operational projects.
The high-speed rail projects HS1 (originally known as the Channel Tunnel Rail Link) and HS2 have been long term undertakings in the UK. HS1 construction began in the early 1990s, with work on the southern section of the tunnel starting in October 1998 and the line officially opening on November 6, 2007. The planning for 'High Speed 2' commenced in January 2009, leading to the establishment of HS2 Ltd. Phase 1 has been under construction since 2017, and as of 2024, the project is continuing focusing on a high-speed railway between London and Birmingham. This phase includes new stations and infrastructure along the route. However, there have been challenges; Phase 2 has been cancelled, with Phase 1 now concentrating on completing the line from London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street. HS2 will span approximately 140 miles (225 km), yet it is not expected to become operational until between 2029 and 2033. Putting this into context, for commuters who were 39 years old when construction began in 2017, they will only be able to use this route when they are age 55.
When comparing this railway line's construction timeline to other countries' rail links worldwide, we can analyse how such time constraints impact UK compounding and the annual net economic gain of high-speed railways. We can examine the time taken, length of railway lines built, and costs, albeit briefly in this blog, looking at Germany and China, both known for their effective planning, modular construction techniques, and significant investments in infrastructure.
Overview of High-Speed Rail Networks
As of 2024, the total high-speed rail network in the UK spans approximately 333 kilometres (207 miles). In comparison, Germany has a high-speed rail network of about 3,800 kilometres (2,361 miles)*3, while China high speed network spans with over 46,000 kilometres (28,583 miles)*4.
Creating a quick metric for railway density we can compare how many kilometres of railway per 10 million population is in each of the three countries.
Key observations from initial research is Germany has the highest railway density per population, China has the lowest railway kilometres per 10 million people and The United Kingdom sits in the middle of these three countries.
Railway density comparison
As comparative cost-effectiveness these figures indicate that high-speed rail construction in China tends to be more cost-effective than in the UK and Germany.
The high-speed rail network lengths and densities highlight significant differences between UK, Germany, and China. These metrics underscore the varying approaches and priorities in rail infrastructure development across these nations.
Construction Costs
We can summarize and create estimates for the construction costs and project completion times for these high speed railway projects:
The cost to build 1 kilometre of high-speed railway tracks in Germany is approximately £20,0000/ €25 million*3. Therefore, the estimated cost to construct a 225 km high-speed rail link—equivalent to the length of HS2—in Germany in 2024 would be around £2.24 billion/€2.7 billion*5.
In China, typical infrastructure unit costs range from £13 million to £17 million per kilometre . For instance, constructing a 225km railway in China (excluding regional and labour cost variations) would range from approximately £2.925 billion to £3.825 billion.*4
Project Completion Times
High Speed Rail 1 (HS1) took 9 years to complete 108 kilometres of railway. (reference figure 3 above).
In contrast, High Speed Rail 2 (HS2) is projected to take 26 years for its approximately 225 kilometres (140 miles ) railway line.
The Phase One budget for HS2 was reported at £44.6 billion*2 in February 2024, translating to about £198.22 million per kilometre or £475 million per mile*5. Historical data suggests that major high-speed rail projects in Germany typically range from 5 to 10 years*3 for completion. However, extensive upgrades and new lines may take around 15 years or more*3, depending on project specifics.
The Fujian Province railway project has been widely documented discussing the projects efficiency; though online research unspecifies the planning and coordination timing. It is noted as taking several months of planning followed by rapid execution. The construction phase took just 8.5 hours*4 to complete a 246.55 km (153.55 miles) high speed railway track with a total investment of approximately £1.21 billion, or about £4,906,000 per km*5).
Annual net economic gain from projects
We tabled these three projects to highlights the economic impacts of various high-speed railways. There are clear benefits of HS1, while noting the broader contributions of German and Chinese projects.
The construction timelines and costs associated with high-speed rail projects vary significantly across countries. While the UK’s HS2 faces extended timelines and rising costs, countries like China demonstrate swift and cost-effective infrastructure development.
The table below presents a projection for the UK High Speed 2 (HS2) project, detailing key financial metrics such as the initial cost, interest rate, duration, future value, and expected annual net economic gain.
Alongside this, an opportunity cost table analysis for HS2 ( Figure 6) summarises the potential economic gains that could have been realised if HS2 had been completed by 2015 and operated until 2033, highlighting the opportunity cost of delays.
As we can see the opportunity cost of delays is significant. Had HS2 been completed by 2015 and operational until 2033, it could have generated total economic gains of around £95.76 billion. This stark contrast highlights the critical importance of timely execution in infrastructure projects.
Conclusion
In conclusion while HS1 provides clear annual economic benefits, HS2 remains less defined until operational. The German high-speed rail network and Fujian province project also promise substantial economic impacts and require further data for precise calculations.
As a Comparative Cost-Effectiveness the figures researched (reference figure 3 ) indicate that high-speed rail construction in China tends to be more cost-effective than in the UK and Germany.
The key milestones for the fourth quarter of 2024, sees the UK rail sector aiming completion for the following ( figure 7)*6 ;
The statistics underscore urgent need for transformative changes in the UK rail sector to enhance competitiveness both within Europe and globally. We endeavour for improved service, and consider well-managed schedules essential and leverage the annual net economic gains of high-speed railways. This should also encompass the expansion of essential services, including airport facilities, as existing infrastructure struggles to accommodate rising tourism and navigation demands. The current state of the UK railway system reveals significant blockages, exacerbated by privatisation challenges. To overcome these hurdles, we can draw inspiration from successful global railway projects such as Germany's ICE (InterCity Express)*or Chūō Shinkansen, Japan*7: high-speed maglev rail line that have been known for their punctuality and public support.
Looking ahead, it is considered essential to develop innovative public initiatives while also securing sustained international support for railway programs to enhance the nation’s economic infrastructure. Such approaches can not only cultivate UK civic pride but also attract investment and drive substantial economic growth. This collaborative approach will ensure that our railways are not just a means of transportation but a cornerstone of a thriving, interconnected economy.
Appendix
Pre Covid level commuters - https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-underground-tube-journeys-pandemic-covid-tfl-b1086100.html
Phase 1 HS2 -https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5804/cmselect/cmpubacc/67/report.html
Germany rail costs -
https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/germany-rail-industry
China fast track railways
https://www.railwaypro.com/wp/china-unveils-its-2035-rail-plan/ https://www.railjournal.com/in_depth/how-china-builds-high-speed-rail-for-less/
exchange rates
convert 11.1 billion yuan to British pounds (GBP) using the exchange rate of 1 CNY = 0.109 GBP: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/967026.shtml
convert euros to pounds - exchange rate of 1 EUR = 0.83197 GBP
Uk Rail sector projects -
https://www.placenortheast.co.uk/northumberland-line-hopes-still-high-for-2024-opening
Germany's ICE (InterCity Express): The ICE trains are well-regarded for their punctuality and comfort, linking major German cities as well as neighbouring countries.
Chūō Shinkansen, Japan: This high-speed maglev rail line connects Tokyo and Nagoya, with plans to extend to Osaka. It is renowned for its punctuality and advanced technology, achieving speeds of up to 500 km/h (310 mph).
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